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Apple’s mixed reality headset threatens to flop

30/5/2023

Translation: Patrik Stainbrook

Apple’s mixed reality headset is coming out in just under a week. Tim Cook is trying to step out of Steve Jobs’ long shadow, but the hurdles to success are high.

Apple is looking for its next big thing. Something that could replace the iPhone in ten years. Next week, the public will get to see one result of this quest. It’s almost certain that Apple will announce its mixed reality headset at the World Wide Developers Conference (WWDC) on 5 June.

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The Californians are thus entering a new product category. The last comparable ventures were the Apple Watch in 2015 and the iPad in 2010. Both initially reached only a niche audience, but have become reliable cash cows over the years. Will this feat succeed again with the headset, supposedly called «Reality Pro»? It might. But I’m sceptical. Never before has the unthinkable seemed more likely: an Apple product that flops.

Why take the risk at all?

Apple is facing multiple intertwined problems. More than half of its sales come from the smartphone segment. The iPhone is by far Apple’s biggest success and has long since overtaken its computer division. The money machine is still running like clockwork – but for how long? Year after year, it becomes more and more difficult to offer innovations to customers. Sooner or later, the iPhone’s sales curve will reach its apex. Then Apple will need a new product line with growth potential.

Macs and iPads won’t do, the market is saturated. That’s why in recent years, Apple has been trying two options. First, they’re expanding their paid services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music. The service division is practically an economic perpetual motion machine. Once you’re trapped in Apple’s comfortable but closed ecosystem, it’s hard to break out. But the services depend on the relevance of Apple’s devices. Without the seamless connection of hard- and software, services become interchangeable.

AR is the next big thing, and it will pervade our entire lives.

Tim Cook 2020

Secondly, new hardware is desperately needed. CEO Tim Cook has long seen augmented reality (AR) as the interface of the future between man and machine. «My view is it’s the next big thing, and it will pervade our entire lives,» he said in 2020. But because AR technology isn’t yet advanced enough, Cook will have to make do with virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) for the time being. After a long development phase, the time has come: Apple’s first headset will see the light of day next week. For it to be a success, however, the Californians will have to overcome various hurdles.

No clear benefit

The first big unknown is the practical utility of VR and MR. Why would people use such a headset in the first place? All possible answers come with an asterisk.

Gaming: Apple is reportedly planning a full gaming offensive at WWDC. Mainly to promote the upcoming headset. Games are still the most attractive and tangible application area for VR. Indeed, good VR games are an immersive experience. However, they come with some limitations. The controls are often a mixture of physically looking around and moving with a joystick. This can be confusing. Moreover, development studios first have to actually make enough good games for the new platform.

Entertainment: imagine sitting on the couch and your living room turns into a giant movie theatre. If well implemented, Apple could appeal to a mass audience with this concept. But how is this better than a good TV, really? And what are the compromises in terms of comfort?
Social interaction: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is going all in on his vision of VR social media. Apple could copy him on that. But public enthusiasm about virtual meetings and social networks has been limited. The benefits are too small, the technology too cumbersome. Since Apple doesn’t run its own social media platform and hardly wants to promote the competition, this shouldn’t be the focus of the new headset.
Professional applications: another Meta idea that Apple CEO Tim Cook could copy is virtual workstations. A good MR headset would be able to turn any broom closet into a spacious office with a view. Such applications are conceivable for the Reality Pro. After all, Apple has a whole ecosystem of productivity applications that could be integrated. But again, is this really better than an ordinary computer or just a gimmick?

Technical limits

There are already plenty of rumours about the Reality Pro’s hardware. The headset is said to include high-resolution 4K displays, various tracking systems and an Apple Silicon chip. Apple should be technically superior to the competition. No one else can develop and coordinate their own hardware and software simultaneously at the same high level. If there’s one thing the Californians know, it’s design. I therefore expect a well-designed, handy and user-friendly product. This is especially important for a device offering a completely new experience to many users.

What Apple’s MR headset could look like.
Source: Ian Zelbo

Despite its presumed technical superiority, Apple isn’t magic. The power supply supposedly works via an external battery. This makes the glasses lighter, but necessitates an annoying cable. 4K displays sound good and are better than the competition. But applied to the entire field of view of the human eye, the pixel density is still low. A normal screen is much sharper. And even if Apple’s headset were exceptionally comfortable, not wearing one always feels better.

All four applications described above will stand or fall with their technical implementation. After the initial wow, uncomfortable questions arise. Why should I watch a movie in a headset when it looks better on my TV? Why should I put on a headset to work if the weight is exhausting in the long run? Why should I game in VR if I get nauseous and tangled in a cable? Apple either has to provide convincing arguments or technically be light years ahead of the rest of the industry.

Unattainable luxury?

State-of-the-art technology is expensive. According to estimates, the components of the Reality Pro alone should cost 1,500 US dollars. How much of a margin Apple adds to that is disputed. Most assume a final price of 3000 dollars. A few leakers, on the other hand, claim that Apple isn’t looking for its usual high profits. Similar to Meta, Cupertino could also accept the device losing money – with the goal of bringing the technology to users faster. Profits would only be a goal in the long term.

Even in this case: a price below 2000 dollars is as good as impossible. This will put the Reality Pro out of reach for most consumers. It remains reserved for a niche audience that can and wants to afford such a device. Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce predicts sales of less than 100,000 units. By comparison, Sony’s PSVR2 sold 600,000 units in its first six weeks.

Few incentives for developers

In order for anyone to spend that much money on a headset at all, it needs suitable apps. Apple is starting from scratch in virtual and mixed reality. Supposedly, iPad apps will run on the operating system called xrOS, but that’s a consolation at best. To get its new ecosystem going, Apple needs to get software studios on board. Not surprising that the device is debuting at a developer conference, then.

The headset announcement is expected at the World Wide Developers Conference, which focuses on software.
Source: Apple

Is the hype around the brand enough? Apple can’t offer studios much more than hope for a rosy future in mixed reality. A userbase doesn’t yet exist for xrOS. And, as always, the platform won’t be compatible with other manufacturers. So if you develop an app for the Apple headset, you can’t sell it on for devices from Meta, HTC or Sony without added effort.

The competition never sleeps

Unlike previous products, Apple isn’t the only big fish in the pond. Mark Zuckerberg continues to burn through billions for his vision of virtual reality. The Meta Quest Pro shows where the path could lead – but it looks unfinished and doesn’t convince anyone at a price of 1,600 US dollars.

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Meta plans to launch the Quest 3 as early as October. It’ll probably cost a fifth of the Apple Reality Pro at most, much more accessible. First hands-on reports sound positive. The Quest 3 is supposedly faster than its predecessor and uses technology from the expensive Quest Pro. Meta has a head start in terms of available apps – but also an image problem.

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In the gaming sector, Sony offers a mature headset with the PSVR2. Twinned with a mandatory PlayStation 5, it’s admittedly more expensive than the cheap Meta Quest 2. But even so, it probably only costs a third of the upcoming Apple device. For gamers, Sony will thus retain the more attractive offer. And people looking to connect their headset to a PC have even more choice with devices from Valve and HTC.

Tim Cook’s legacy

Rarely has there been so much uncertainty over an Apple launch. In recent years, everything the tech giant from Cupertino touched seemed to turn into gold. But this time there’s a lot of nervousness even internally, as the New York Times reported. For CEO Tim Cook, the stakes are high. For a long time now, he’s been talking about how augmented reality will change all our lives. The Reality Pro is his chance to show that Apple is capable of great innovation under him – and he’s not just managing Steve Jobs’ legacy.

Under Tim Cook, Apple became the efficient money machine it is today. Critics, however, complain that there have been no groundbreaking product innovations since the death of his predecessor, Steve Jobs.
Source: Shutterstock

Can the Reality Pro live up to these expectations? Is it Apple’s hoped-for entry into a new future-proof product line? There’s much to be said against this. The headset has to overcome technical limitations, stand up to better-known competition, and justify an exorbitant price despite the lack of an ecosystem. But the biggest unanswered question: was anyone waiting for such a device in the first place?

There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.

Steve Ballmer 2007

Despite all these doubts, the Reality Pro shouldn’t be written off completely. It wouldn’t be the first time that Apple proves all the sceptics wrong. In 2007, then Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said the quote above.

Header image: Ian Zelbo

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Samuel Buchmann

Senior Editor

Samuel.Buchmann@digitecgalaxus.ch

My fingerprint often changes so drastically that my MacBook doesn't recognise it anymore. The reason? If I'm not clinging to a monitor or camera, I'm probably clinging to a rockface by the tips of my fingers.

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Apple’s mixed reality headset threatens to flop

WWDC 2023 on 5 June: Apple could unveil these products

Why take the risk at all?

No clear benefit

Technical limits

Unattainable luxury?

Few incentives for developers

The competition never sleeps

Meta Quest Pro in the test: Unfinished harbinger

Meta under pressure – Part 4: the Apple Menace

Tim Cook’s legacy

These articles might also interest you

Meta under pressure – Part 4: the Apple Menace

Meta under pressure – Part 5: all or nothing.

Pico 4 Ultra review: a solid enough headset, but nothing groundbreaking

53 comments

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WWDC 2023 on 5 June: Apple could unveil these products

Meta Quest Pro in the test: Unfinished harbinger

Meta under pressure – Part 4: the Apple Menace

53 comments